9211 S Highland Ave · Garfield Heights, OH ● Oct 2019 – Dec 2025 ● Actual figures from closing docs & Schedule E

Same cash.
Many very different endings.

The same out-of-pocket dollars — $23,489 at closing in late 2019, plus $1,924 more in 2020 when the rental ran negative — placed into a rental house, a total-market index fund, a savings account, or a single stock. Identical amounts, identical dates, nothing withdrawn.

Tax assumptions:
Compare:
Highland Ave rental
$82,174
~25% / yr · equity + $16.7k rent cash collected
VTSAX (total US market)
$54,903
~14.2% / yr · dividends reinvested
High-yield savings
$29,600
~2.6% / yr · top online rates each year

Where the house's tax bill comes from

LineAmountNote
Sale price (Zestimate)$118,800Zillow range $103k–$133k
Less selling costs (8%)−$9,504Commission, title, transfer
Less adjusted basis−$52,656$67,000 cost less $14,344 depreciation
Taxable gain$56,640Split into two buckets below
Depreciation recapture−$5,465$14,344 at 25% + NIIT + state
Long-term capital gain−$11,885$42,296 at 15% + NIIT + state
Tax already paid on rent−$3,996Ordinary rates on Schedule E income
After-tax result$60,828vs. $82,174 pre-tax

Option A · 1031 exchange — don't pay the $17,350 at all

Section 1031 lets you roll the entire gain into another investment property instead of writing the IRS a check. The equity that would have gone to tax keeps working. Hold to death and the basis steps up, and the deferred tax is never paid by anyone.

StepRuleYour numbers
Qualified intermediaryMust be engaged before closing; you may never touch the proceeds—
45-day identificationName replacement properties in writing within 45 days of closing3 max, typically
180-day closeAcquire the replacement within 180 days, no extensions—
Replace the valueNew property ≥ relinquished sale price, or the shortfall is taxed as boot≥ $118,800
Replace the debtNew debt ≥ old debt, or add cash to make up the difference≥ $43,842
Carryover basisOld basis follows you; depreciation restarts on the excess only$52,656 carried
Tax deferred todayGrows at 7% for 20 years if reinvested$17,350 → $67,000

Traps: taking any cash out at closing creates taxable boot; replacing with less debt is also boot; a property held in a multi-member LLC can't exchange at the partnership level, so a "drop and swap" has to be set up well before a sale.

Option B · Cash-out refinance — tap the equity, pay no tax, keep the asset

Loan proceeds are not income, so a cash-out refinance is tax-free: no recapture, no capital gains, no 45-day clock. You keep the appreciation, the depreciation deductions and the rent. The cost is a much higher rate than the 5.75% you're carrying, and a payment that eats the cash flow.

ScenarioNew loanCash to youP&I / mo
Today (no change)$43,842—$280
70% LTV at ~8.25%$83,160$36,823$625
75% LTV at ~8.25%$89,100$42,585$669
80% LTV at ~8.25%$95,040$48,347$714
What the rental can actually carry~$81,700~$35,400$613 (DSCR 1.0)

Investment-property refinance rates in October 2026 run roughly a half to a full point above owner-occupied, which is sitting near 7.4%–7.9%. At 75% LTV the payment rises about $389/month, roughly $4,700/year, against ~$7,400/year of cash currently available for debt service. Most lenders want DSCR at or above 1.20, which caps this nearer $68,000 of loan and about $22,000 of cash out. Assumes 3% closing costs rolled in.

What the numbered points on the house line mean

  1. 12019Bought for $60,000. $12k down + closing costs + $5.5k rehab. Closing costs mean the house starts “underwater” on paper.
  2. 22020The hard year. $6.0k of repairs; the property needed another $1,924 of fresh cash (every other scenario gets the same deposit).
  3. 32021Self-sustaining. From here rent covers the mortgage, taxes, insurance and repairs, and depreciation shelters most of the income from tax.
  4. 42022Stress test. VTSAX falls 19.5%, Tesla 65%, Meta 64%, Amazon 50%. The house keeps paying rent and appreciating.
  5. 52025Today. Zestimate $118,800 against a ~$43.8k loan balance, plus $16,720 of cumulative rent cash flow already collected.
Assumptions, so this stays honest: House values between purchase ($60,000, Oct 2019) and today’s Zestimate ($118,800) are interpolated along Zillow’s published trend; Zillow’s own range of $103k–$133k moves the result by roughly ±$14,000. Depreciation of $2,326/yr is taken from the actual Schedule E filings and is recaptured as “allowed or allowable” whether or not it was claimed in a given year. 2025 rental cash flow estimated at $4,000; 2019–2024 are actual tax figures. Securities lines use actual calendar-year total returns with dividends reinvested (source: FinanceCharts, Jan 2020–Dec 2025); the after-tax view taxes dividends annually and applies capital gains tax at the point of sale, while savings interest is taxed every year at ordinary rates, which is why the savings line suffers most. State tax assumes California treats all gains as ordinary income with no preferential rate; an Ohio nonresident return would also be due on the rental, generally offset by a California credit. Single-stock lines are hindsight: nobody knew in 2019 that Nvidia would 33×, and for every Nvidia there are companies that went nowhere, which is the risk the index fund exists to avoid. This is an illustration, not tax or investment advice — the real figures depend on filing status, income, suspended passive losses, and whether the property is ever sold at all.